Lets hope the street protesters can exert enough influence to take this corrupt cunt down once and for all. Although, Aytollah Khamenei has denounced the protesters. There has not being such civil unrest since the Islamic Revolution. I can see this going two ways, the protests are crushed like Tienanmen and tyranny rules and we will have an oppressive regime inevitably with nuclear weapons or the people actually renounce the supreme power of Khamenei and continue to protest Ahmadinejad (is that spelling correct, Jack's certainly isn't) tyranny thereby permanently changing Iran's political landscape on a scale not seen since the 78. I'm sure every half sane person hopes the later happens but realistically the former seems more likely.
It is hard to take down a democratically elected government. Revolutions happen when the troops refuse to fire on the crowd on behalf of the regime. The legitimacy conferred by election makes that almost impossible.
Even the officer corps has the same problem overthrowing an elected government. The Greek junta and Pinochet succeeded only because elected governments had been delegitimized by corruption and economic failure.
Was the election democratic? From what I can see the entire thing was a farce. Ahmadinijad (Thats obviously not the correct spelling) seems to have marshalled quite a few sheep from the poorest parts of Iran to bring about a huge turnout - and there is in turn huge questions about the manner in which they were 'persuaded' to vote for tyranny.
The entire election was a farce but I think what Jack may be implying here is, that in the context of the Iranian political system, the election of Ahmadinejad is legitimated insofar as the supreme leader of the state is Ayotollah Khamenei and he supports Ahmadinejad, he has the last word on all matters, the reformists also only have a minority in the government, 100 seats, and this along with Khamenei's approval of the election results means there will be no revolution of any kind from the military. The riots will be crushed quite easily with force and the only hope for Mousavi, and in general for common decency, is that the main power organ (can't remember its name) that has the power to overrule an Ayotollah decision decide to accept Mousavi's protestations. Islamic law is not a simple one way process where a free election equates validity, it is completely different to Western conceptions of democracy and much more complex, there are also diverging interpretations of what democracy is based on interpretations from the Qur'an. Mousavi is very unlikely to gain authority either, this appears to be have pre-orchestrated. It is not in the interest of the Ayatollah and Islamic law to have reformists opening trade and dialogue with Obama's America, this would undermine Islamic conservative ideals and would inevitably lead to a more secularized Iran, it is highly improbable any positive scenario will emerge from this not unless the will of the people perseveres and forces change. Iran can either go two ways, extremely conservative and repressed, or secular, I don't see a middle ground and all the power is in one side.
Eh.. Well if you were familiar, then what you said is just stupid. No one is disputing that the Presidential elections were or were not a farce, they clearly were. Surely you understand that the government is the legislative branch, the President is not, the government was democratically elected, that is schoolboy stuff Christy. I don't understand your point.
What are you arguing about? I was clearly responding to Jack's post, where he said that 'its hard to take down a democratically elected government'. Leave out the schoolboy jibes for Christs sake, we're not in a pub.
I actually see what you mean now. Highly pedantic I must say. I was very clearly referring to the results of the presidential election. Maybe I should qualify everything I say with an extended addendum to ensure complete clarity?
Its not pedantic, I'm just assuming when Jack said government, he was referring to the government who were democratically elected last year and have limited legitimated power with the Majils with most legislative power, its hard defy such legitimated power and generally in such a system a revolution is extremely unlikely. You weren't making a lot of sense to me Christy, in fact what you said made no sense. Anyway, its brilliant to see the Iranians out on the street and defying the government and that if anything momentum is being gathered, 100,000+ people on the streets is pretty significant and the flip-flopping Ayatollah may be forced to back down in his backing of Ahmadinejad (He has already called for an investigation). A very interesting situation emerging here.
Correction, I meant to say Council of Guardian (in above post) and not Majils. Anyway, I am surprised you are not saying much about this Jack and are talking about geography in what is one of the most significant events in the Middle East in an awful long time, what's with the apathy? Anyway, I have been thinking a lot about this and it is wrecking my head as to what is really going on and what is the cause of all this. Could it be Barack Obama's diplomacy that has caused all this. After all, without trying to sound to cynical this is a win:win situation for the U.S. and of course Israel. If the protests are successful and there is an overthrow (Khamenei from what I gather is a pretty weak leader so nothing is impossible) then the positive is quite obviously a less conservative Iran and a weakened conservative power. If the protests are crushed by force and murder, then Iran looses all international credibility, Obama can renege on his engagement policy and harsh U.N. sections are less likely to be vetoed in the security council. I am fully convinced that Obama's speech was very carefully timed now and I can't help but feel that Western influence has played a huge role in this. There is about 100 different things that may have caused all this and it is a headfuck trying to understand it all and what will happen next.
Helloooooooooooooooooohhhhh...Jack, are you home? Are you enjoying this give and take between Christy and Damien? And you have nothing to add? Loverly ! hahaha
I just got back from Fresno. One of the little pleasures of age is that one's friends do little tricks like entering chemotherapy. My friend looooooves classical music. And after chemotherapy treatments he can't do much but lie on the couch.
Classical music requires excellent stereo equipment to listen to properly (short of hearing it live). So I got him these big-ass six feet tall (2 meters to you yuks) Magneplanar speakers on Craigslist and an ancient but majorly powerful stereo and a CD carousel.
Now he has a glorious system with lots of stereo image definition and dynamic range. One can hear not just the orchestra but the individual instruments simultaneously.
[Still President]
Lets hope the street protesters can exert enough influence to take this corrupt cunt down once and for all. Although, Aytollah Khamenei has denounced the protesters. There has not being such civil unrest since the Islamic Revolution. I can see this going two ways, the protests are crushed like Tienanmen and tyranny rules and we will have an oppressive regime inevitably with nuclear weapons or the people actually renounce the supreme power of Khamenei and continue to protest Ahmadinejad (is that spelling correct, Jack's certainly isn't) tyranny thereby permanently changing Iran's political landscape on a scale not seen since the 78. I'm sure every half sane person hopes the later happens but realistically the former seems more likely.
ReplyDeleteIt is hard to take down a democratically elected government. Revolutions happen when the troops refuse to fire on the crowd on behalf of the regime. The legitimacy conferred by election makes that almost impossible.
ReplyDeleteEven the officer corps has the same problem overthrowing an elected government. The Greek junta and Pinochet succeeded only because elected governments had been delegitimized by corruption and economic failure.
Was the election democratic? From what I can see the entire thing was a farce. Ahmadinijad (Thats obviously not the correct spelling) seems to have marshalled quite a few sheep from the poorest parts of Iran to bring about a huge turnout - and there is in turn huge questions about the manner in which they were 'persuaded' to vote for tyranny.
ReplyDeleteThe entire election was a farce but I think what Jack may be implying here is, that in the context of the Iranian political system, the election of Ahmadinejad is legitimated insofar as the supreme leader of the state is Ayotollah Khamenei and he supports Ahmadinejad, he has the last word on all matters, the reformists also only have a minority in the government, 100 seats, and this along with Khamenei's approval of the election results means there will be no revolution of any kind from the military. The riots will be crushed quite easily with force and the only hope for Mousavi, and in general for common decency, is that the main power organ (can't remember its name) that has the power to overrule an Ayotollah decision decide to accept Mousavi's protestations. Islamic law is not a simple one way process where a free election equates validity, it is completely different to Western conceptions of democracy and much more complex, there are also diverging interpretations of what democracy is based on interpretations from the Qur'an. Mousavi is very unlikely to gain authority either, this appears to be have pre-orchestrated. It is not in the interest of the Ayatollah and Islamic law to have reformists opening trade and dialogue with Obama's America, this would undermine Islamic conservative ideals and would inevitably lead to a more secularized Iran, it is highly improbable any positive scenario will emerge from this not unless the will of the people perseveres and forces change. Iran can either go two ways, extremely conservative and repressed, or secular, I don't see a middle ground and all the power is in one side.
ReplyDeleteI was only responding to Jacks first line 'its hard to take down a democratically elected government'. I'm familiar with the Iranian political system.
ReplyDeleteEh.. Well if you were familiar, then what you said is just stupid. No one is disputing that the Presidential elections were or were not a farce, they clearly were. Surely you understand that the government is the legislative branch, the President is not, the government was democratically elected, that is schoolboy stuff Christy. I don't understand your point.
ReplyDeleteWhat are you arguing about? I was clearly responding to Jack's post, where he said that 'its hard to take down a democratically elected government'. Leave out the schoolboy jibes for Christs sake, we're not in a pub.
ReplyDeleteI actually see what you mean now. Highly pedantic I must say. I was very clearly referring to the results of the presidential election. Maybe I should qualify everything I say with an extended addendum to ensure complete clarity?
ReplyDeleteIts not pedantic, I'm just assuming when Jack said government, he was referring to the government who were democratically elected last year and have limited legitimated power with the Majils with most legislative power, its hard defy such legitimated power and generally in such a system a revolution is extremely unlikely. You weren't making a lot of sense to me Christy, in fact what you said made no sense. Anyway, its brilliant to see the Iranians out on the street and defying the government and that if anything momentum is being gathered, 100,000+ people on the streets is pretty significant and the flip-flopping Ayatollah may be forced to back down in his backing of Ahmadinejad (He has already called for an investigation). A very interesting situation emerging here.
ReplyDeleteCorrection, I meant to say Council of Guardian (in above post) and not Majils. Anyway, I am surprised you are not saying much about this Jack and are talking about geography in what is one of the most significant events in the Middle East in an awful long time, what's with the apathy?
ReplyDeleteAnyway, I have been thinking a lot about this and it is wrecking my head as to what is really going on and what is the cause of all this. Could it be Barack Obama's diplomacy that has caused all this. After all, without trying to sound to cynical this is a win:win situation for the U.S. and of course Israel. If the protests are successful and there is an overthrow (Khamenei from what I gather is a pretty weak leader so nothing is impossible) then the positive is quite obviously a less conservative Iran and a weakened conservative power. If the protests are crushed by force and murder, then Iran looses all international credibility, Obama can renege on his engagement policy and harsh U.N. sections are less likely to be vetoed in the security council. I am fully convinced that Obama's speech was very carefully timed now and I can't help but feel that Western influence has played a huge role in this. There is about 100 different things that may have caused all this and it is a headfuck trying to understand it all and what will happen next.
Helloooooooooooooooooohhhhh...Jack, are you home? Are you enjoying this give and take between Christy and Damien? And you have nothing to add?
ReplyDeleteLoverly ! hahaha
I just got back from Fresno. One of the little pleasures of age is that one's friends do little tricks like entering chemotherapy. My friend looooooves classical music. And after chemotherapy treatments he can't do much but lie on the couch.
ReplyDeleteClassical music requires excellent stereo equipment to listen to properly (short of hearing it live). So I got him these big-ass six feet tall (2 meters to you yuks) Magneplanar speakers on Craigslist and an ancient but majorly powerful stereo and a CD carousel.
Now he has a glorious system with lots of stereo image definition and dynamic range. One can hear not just the orchestra but the individual instruments simultaneously.
Which he said gives him pleasure.