Truth from an Unlikely Source

We keep reading in the ever-reliable American press that the election is close or a dead heat because opinion polls are coming out dead even. And that would be true if the public elected the president. But we don't - the electoral college does.

Applying polling data from who is ahead where, it appears that on September 17, Senator Obama was leading in states with 215 electoral votes, and Senator McCain in states with 216 electoral votes. The sampling method used has an uncertainty or error (if it was a lens we would say a resolving power) of 3% one way or the other. So states where the candidates are within 3% of each other are shown as unresolved -- a tossup. Unresolved states collectively have 107 electoral votes. 270 votes are needed to win.

The unlikely source, as the sharp-eyed have already noticed, is Karl Rove & Co. Yes, that Karl Rove. Their website has a slider which shows the maps and tallies week by week since March 31 so one can watch the states change color and the projected totals go up and down as opinion fluctuates. Obama has been as far ahead as 296 to 188, and McCain as far ahead as 256 to 186. Some blue states like Massachusetts, Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, and Illinois are always blue. Some red states like Alabama, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Arizona are always red. An astonishing number of others change color frequently. Of the four biggest states, California and New York are always blue, and Texas is always red. The fourth biggest state, and one which changes repeatedly is -- G_d help us -- Florida.

The conclusion is that the election is not so much close as it is uncertain. There is no reason at all to expect that the winner of the popular vote will take office in January, even without the Supreme Court prostituting itself again. The 2000 election proved that the integrity of the process is vastly more important than whether the winner of the most popular votes takes office. Fair and honest elections are more important than majority rule.

http://www.rove.com/maps/overtime

or click on the map.