Wednesday, February 16, 2011

It Ain't Over 'til the Fat Lady Sings

[Monserrat Caballe in 'Lucia di Lammermoor']

It has become an object of public interest to hunt down Mubarak's ill-gotten gains. I wouldn't worry too much about Mubarak. He is less important than people imagine.

The fall of the old regime is only the very beginning of the revolution. From the fall of Louis XVI to the establishment of a stable government under Napoleon Bonaparte was eight years of rapidly changing governments, warfare, and domestic bloodshed. From the fall of Nicholas II to the expulsion of Trotsky and the entrenchment of Stalin was eleven years of rapidly changing governments, warfare, and domestic bloodshed. From the fall of Wilhelm II to the consolidation of the power of Adolf Hitler was fifteen years of rapidly changing governments and domestic bloodshed. From Bunker Hill to George Washington taking office was thirteen years of rapidly changing governments, warfare, and, baruch Hashem, only a small amount of domestic bloodshed..

What has happened in Egypt is not a revolution. It is the beginning of a revolution.

Egypt today has a population equal to Russia in 1917, four times that of France in 1789, and twenty times that of the American colonies in 1776.

Revolution against colonial rule in America led eventually to revolutions against colonial rule throughout the Americas. Republican revolution in France led to the overthrow of monarchies throughout Europe. Bolshevik revolution in Russia led to communist governments from Berlin to Hanoi.

What the revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt will lead to remains to be seen. But whatever it is, it will be a big deal and will likely lead to big changes in hundreds of millions of lives. And in all likelihood, there will be rapidly changing governments, warfare, and domestic bloodshed before it is over.


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