Wednesday, April 14, 2010

The Tunnels

[Ismail Haniyeh]

According to today's Haaretz, Hamas has ordered the indefinite closure of the smuggling tunnels underneath Gaza's border with Egypt. These are transport routes both for weapons and for goods. Hamas made no statement about the reasons for the closure.

One possibility that comes to mind is a grim one. They may have intelligence that Hezbollah intends to use the SCUD missiles rumored to have been given them by Syria. If that happens, the Israeli response will make Operation Cast Lead look like a march of toy soldiers. If any missiles come out of Gaza at the same time SCUD's are being launched from Lebanon, Gaza will be leveled along with all sites associated with Hezbollah.

Haniyeh may figure that Hamas does not have sufficient control of all the factions in Gaza to prevent that directly. The way to prevent rocket fire from Gaza is to preclude a supply of rockets being smuggled through the tunnels.

It is possible that Haniyeh figures, perhaps correctly, that if SCUD's fall on Tel Aviv as they did from Iraq in 2003, then Israel will not give a damn about Arab civilian casualties and kill whomever they have to kill to make the bombardment of Israeli cities stop.

We know from statements made by Nasrallah after the war in Lebanon that Hezbollah miscalculated what the Israeli response to the kidnapping of soldiers would be. Haniyeh may figure that Hezbollah are about to miscalculate again.

It is hard to believe that between any two parties, that Hamas could be the saner and more restrained, but it may be so this time.

Israeli government officials have already said that if Hezbollah has SCUD missiles that the situation will have fundamentally changed. Syria has denied giving them to Hezbollah and Hezbollah has denied getting them.

The closure of the tunnels suggests that Haniyeh does not believe them.

1 comment:

  1. Abood2:05 PM

    Please apologise for the deaths of milluons you sionest dog.